Saturday 25 January 2014

India' Population Conundrum



Right from school days, Civics text books drill into our heads that the country's runaway population is our major problem. And the demographers, in order to show its magnitude, resort to dramatic comparisons - the most popular one being that every year we are adding the population of Australia to our overcrowded land. So whatever little progress is made gets neutralised by it. Forget metros, even small towns are bursting at the seams due to population pressure.

In seventies we had the famous 'hum do hamare do' campaign and while travelling through highways in north India, the water tanks in some nondescript villages had the graffiti 'parivaar bhi seemit, paani bhi seemit' (loosely translated it meant 'small family, less water consumption').

But somehow the country's family planning drive met with only limited success in some parts (that too mainly in urban areas), while in vast swathes (especially the infamous BIMARU hinterland) it did little to arrest the burgeoning population. The reasons ranged from policy loopholes to downright lack of political will and then of course the well entrenched patriarchal mores surrounding girl child. As a negative fallout it encouraged female foeticide and spawned a cottage industry involving doctors and diagnostic labs to carry out sex determination tests. The end result has been an  alarmingly skewed sex ratios in many states.

The coercive sterilisation tactics used during the infamous Emergency made family planning a dirty word and the political class became cagey about promoting it.

Now we have hurtled ourselves within a striking distance to overtake even the most populous nation - China, that has a land mass three times our size. The recent 'population map' of India (albeit with truncated Kashmir), going viral on Twitter, shows the magnitude of problem in a more alarming light. The population of every state seems to be on par with some of the most populous countries in the world.

Thus the country's most populous state Uttar Pradesh has a population higher than Pakistan and is on par with Brazil, which is ranked fifth in world population ranking. By the way Brazil's population is spread over a land mass that is greater than whole of India. As for Uttar Pradesh its land mass shrank a decade ago after Uttarakhand was hived off.

The next most populous state Maharashtra is on par with Mexico, ranked eleventh in world; followed by Bihar which is on par with Philippines, ranked 12 and West Bengal on par with Vietnam, ranked 13. Comrades in Bengal will be happy to know that they have one more thing in common with Vietnam.

Andhra Pradesh has a population equal to Egypt, ranked 15. Madhya Pradesh has a population equivalent to Turkey, ranked 18, while Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are equal to Thailand, ranked 20.

Next in line comes Gujarat and Karnataka and their population equivalent of that of Italy, ranked 23. This is a comparison that Narendra Modi and his ardent followers may not be happy about.  For Gujarat strongman anything Italian reminds him of his political rivals.

Interestingly Kerala (one of few success stories in population control) has a population equal to Canada, ranked 37 in world, but the North American country has a land mass nearly three times that of India! Good news for Kabutarbaaz (human traffickers) and those moving heaven and earth to get 'kaneda' visas.

Now the population debate has been turned on its head. The term 'population explosion' is passe, now demographic dividend is the new mantra. The policy makers are now trying to make a virtue out of their failure to curb population growth. Recent census data shows that those in the 15-24 age group form more than 60 per cent of the population. They argue that if provided with right skills, they could prove to be a very productive asset. However history has shown that when it comes to planning, execution and political will, our leaders inspire little confidence. Hence there is little to look forward to the so called dividend, it will most probably prove to be a liability.

Image source: Twitter


Also Read: Bangalore Beat

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